Trong weak, Phuc dominates- fierce fight prior to 13th Party Congress

The 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)will take place in the near future, this is the time to fight and purge the fierce faction in the party in Ba Dinh to take the positions, which has brought many exciting predictions.

The 13th Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam will decide the key personnel to change this “three pillars,” and also the Vietnamese government in the new term.
The traditional group is the “four pillars,” referring to the four key titles of the Communist Party and the Vietnamese state as the general secretary, the president, the prime minister and the president of the National Assembly. However, recently, Mr. Tran Dai Quang died mysteriously when he was infected with a strange virus, so it was reduced to “three pillars.”
In the political system led by the Communist Party in Vietnam and also according to Article 4 of the Constitution, the party leads, so the most important is still the title of general secretary of the party to be won by whom?

Because the VCP did not dare to publicly campaign and vote on live broadcast among rivals, everything was arranged in the dark, which led to many rumors about who could be the four pillars in the congress.

Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai, a researcher of Center for Policy Future, Department of Humanities and Sociology, University of Queensland, Australia, said that there are currently three candidates emerging for the position of general secretary: incumbent Prime Minister Phuc, National Assembly Chairwoman Ngan and Standing Committee Secretary Vuong.
However, according to Dr. Hai, the biggest question that is crucial to the choice is whether the Party will continue to pursue the current general secretary cum president position, or return to traditional “four pillars.”
Dr. Hai also noted that the use of the word ‘unification’ is not necessarily correct, but the most convenient for the interpretation of the complex power structure in political systems such as Vietnam and China. Because, the Statute of the Communist Party of Vietnam and the Vietnamese Constitution still have separate provisions for the position of general secretary and president, so even if one person holds two positions, these are still two separate positions in the main political system in Vietnam.

If you go back to the traditional model, that is, the four ‘four pillars’ held by four different Politburo members, then Mr. Tran Quoc Vuong has many advantages to become General Secretary, because he is a person currently in the fourth position of power in the Party (after Trong has assumed the position of President since August 2018). He has also held a position suitable to the title of party leader. In this position, the age requirement may also apply to exceptions.
A traditional ‘four pillar’ model would then have other options, such as Central Organizing Committee’s Chairman Pham Minh Chinh, Defense Minister Ngo Xuan Lich or even National Assembly’s Vice Chairwoman Tong Thi Phong.
Meanwhile, if the current model of General Secretary cum President is held, the present Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc will have more advantages.
However, Phuc has a big disadvantage of impulsive, speaking lack of depth and not knowing foreign languages, please watch the following short video to know this Video

Mr. Trong is welcoming Chinese President Xi Jinping in Hanoi

Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai also said that, although currently raising the issue of control of power, but considering the factors of support in the party, the dual-position model of these two titles is somewhat supported.
Mr. Hai also noted that the issue of a person who holds both the position of general secretary and president was raised by the 8th National Party Congress.
According to Dr. Hai, however, the unification requires not only the person in charge of that position in terms of prestige and capacity, but also the assistant apparatus must be very clean, requiring very smooth coordination in the two agencies.

Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai said that, in terms of advantages from the way of demonstrating the ability to manage and solve problems, Mr. Phuc is an excellent candidate.
According to Dr. Hai, “Vietnam’s economic achievements in the current term, especially in the past 2019, as well as Mr. Phuc’s performance in foreign affairs over the past time have shown positively.”
Moreover, since Mr. Trong has suffered from illness in Kien Giang up to now, Mr. Phuc has stood out almost as an executive, directing in roles in fields such as defense and police, which is the general secretary’s duties.
According to Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai, with all such experiences, as well as with next year Mr. Phuc at the age of 67 – the age is not too high – at the same time, by observation, Mr. Phuc is eligible. on health to be in charge of the work of the two posts.

Regarding National Assembly Chairwoman Nguyen Thi Kim Ngan, Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai said that Ngan would be suitable for the position of prime minister because she has experience in running the National Assembly. She has also been a member of the Government in charge of Labor – Invalids and Social Affairs or Deputy Minister of Finance, as well as experience from grassroots experience.
However, Ms. Ngan also did not win the full support, because there are still ideas that she was not enough to be prime minister.
Another candidate for this position instead of Ms. Ngan is Deputy Prime Minister Vuong Dinh Hue – who is in charge of the government’s economic sector.
Mr. Tran Quoc Vuong will have the advantage to become General Secretary if the party returns to the traditional ‘four pillars’ model. However, he has not shown much in foreign affairs or economic management, so if he chooses the current model of General Secretary and President, the number one candidate is Prime Minister Phuc.

If returning to the ‘four pillars’ model, there will be one more Politburo member to take on one of these four positions. At that time, the suitable candidates may be Mr. Pham Minh Chinh- head of the Central Organization Committee, Ms. Tong Thi Phong- vice chairwoman of the National Assembly or Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan- secretary of Ho Chi Minh City Party Committee.
When asked about some observers’ previous predictions regarding the possibility of Mr. Nguyen Thien Nhan becoming Prime Minister, Dr. Nguyen Hong Hai said that this is difficult.

Few will support Mr. Nhan’s becoming Prime Minister,” he said, looking at his achievements as deputy prime minister, minister of Education and Training, and then the chairman of the Vietnam Fatherland Front, even when he went to Ho Chi Minh City to be the secretary of the city’s Party Committee, we could see that he was a peaceful, not drastic person.

The position of Prime Minister is rarely chosen from special cases of age, while in 2021, Mr. Nhan will be 68 years old, so if he does not take a party’s position, it will be very difficult for him to overcome the regulations on age limit.”

Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc

This is the image of Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong walking shakily when receiving Lao leaders, causing public stir for a while. So according to Mr. Hai, General Secretary Trong will almost certainly take a break due to his insecure health and he probably does not want to continue in his position. Therefore, the transfer of power to the new generation of leadership is almost certain.
Please watch the video of Mr. Trong struglling to to receive foreign guests to learn more about the poor health of the head of the Party and the State of Vietnam
About the list of people who will join the new Politburo, according to Dr. Hai, has almost been finalized. Because of the total number of 15 current Politburo members, 7 will be in office. At the same time, the team participating in the 13th Politburo, if they are now a member of the secretariat, it will be easier for them, like Tran Cam Tu, Nguyen Van Nen, Phan Dinh Trac, Nguyen Hoa Binh, Nguyen Xuan Thang, and Luong Cuong … All of them can become new Politburo members.

Thus, more or less can see, the list of the new key Politburo does not have many changes.

Hoang Trung from Hanoi – (translated)

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