Can a pandemic caused by the dangerous Corona virus accidentally brings reduction of Vietnam’s dependence on China? This is a new question
Economic and public policy experts from Vietnam stated that the influenza epidemic caused by Covid-19 showed that China also had weak points and Vietnam should take this opportunity to change its economic perceptions and thinking.
On Feb 27, Ms. Pham Chi Lan, former vice president and general secretary of Vietnam Chamber of Commerce and Industry (VCCI) said:
“This flu also shows that the weaknesses of China, as China is not too strong and good at all.
“It shows more to Vietnam that being dependent on any country is bad, but depending on a country which has its many own internal and international problems, is critically bad.”
“So whether we want to or not, we have to get ahead, get together and get ahead at this moment, or it’s too late.”
Facing the question that Vietnam needs and should restructure and reorganize its economy, as well as trade and investment, how to achieve a more balanced and sustainable manner, to avoid excessive and unreasonable dependence to a certain partner or market, Pham Chi Lan stated:
“All of this shows clearly that Vietnam’s economic sectors have been heavily dependent on China and it is very necessary to conduct changes early, vigorously and radically to look at the medium and long term.
And even now, Chinese ships are still hovering in Vietnam’s exclusive economic zone in the East Sea (South China Sea) rather than stopping their operations.
“How can we stop relying too much on China like this? Too much dependence is not only when there were problems like last year’s Chinese violations in Vietnam’s Vanguard Bank (2019) when Chinese ships invaded the yard or like this year with Covid-19.
“But all of this shows that because of Vietnam’s long-term future, even to some extent, national security cannot allow its economy to depend forever on China like this. .
“As long as it depends on Vietnam, it is still at the lowest stage in the value chain and every time China has any problems, Vietnam will be able to face great difficulties. I think that’s what Definitely have to do to reduce its dependence.”
Economist Pham Chi Lan analyzes Vietnam’s economic dependence on China
“As for how restructuring is now being discussed, businesses are recommending the government not to focus only on short-term solutions to support them in this difficult time.
Regarding the impact of the disease caused by Covid-19 from China on Vietnam, PhD Pham Quy Tho, a public policy expert from the Ministry of Planning and Investment, said:
“Our production and consumption (Vietnam) have been double-reacted and double-impacted. Firstly, the supply chain has been reduced and broken.”
“For example, the parts, then the electronic components, especially the cars, from trucks to things, and then a lot of textile components, textile materials and accessories that we import from China at 60-70%, or even more, depending on the goods that in Vietnam is also very dangerous.
“And then some factories have Chinese experts working there who haven’t come back (to Vietnam) yet, they don’t come back from the outbreak spots, they don’t come back and we depend on it, so a lot of factories does not work.”
“For example, it is very clear that in Ha Nam province, some factories that depend on these experts do not work.
“Or some places are inactive. If it goes on, I think it is very dangerous.
“For example, gold has also skyrocketed, some days increasing byVND 2-3 million per tael.”
“This is also suspected that people can take advantage of this opportunity when they make a price, but obviously people also worry, have to worry about it. Another plus is that the real estate now is also very bad, real estate situation is very bad, especially not able to sell, which means the demand is very low.
“And the coming projects are also very difficult, so in the short term, we see very clearly.”
“And how is the government coping? I think that often countries that are ‘weak’ like (us) Vietnam, often use fiscal or monetary policy.”
“But before Tet we pumped out a huge amount of money in order to serve the Lunar New Year, now suffer from this, if pumping more the inflation is very high, with inflation index in January, it was higher than last year, so it should not be, “said Pham Quy Tho, former dean of Public Policy Department of the Institute of Policy and Development, Ministry of Planning and Investment of Vietnam.
Economist Pham Chi Lan said:
“I think the Vietnamese leaders themselves are more or less aware of this problem, so Vietnam’s effort in multilateralization and diversification of economic relations has been brought up immediately from the beginning when Vietnam was renewed.
“Among the innovation motto of Vietnam for foreign relations that have been launched since that time is the guideline of diversification and multilateralization of relations.”
Since then, it was thanks to Vietnam’s open-door policy in that direction that the early years had successes and created relatively rapid shifts in Vietnam to soon bring Vietnam out of poverty and crisis earlier.
“But then it was regrettable that when Vietnam was somewhat involved in global supply chains, it had a better export relationship with some other countries and attracted foreign investment. In Vietnam, it seems that Vietnam has somewhat forgotten the need for multilateralisation and diversification in economic relations, especially in developing a number of important Vietnamese economic sectors.
“Vietnam has tried to attract more foreign investment, promoted import and export activities and signed many trade agreements with other countries, as well as signed FTAs (free trade agreements) with a range of However, the worrying fact that the more FTAs Vietnam has signed, the more integrated it becomes, the more it depends on China.”
“It is supposed that when opening markets, relations with many countries, it must open more than relations with other countries and the dependence on China will have to decrease, but with Vietnam, the dependence will increase.”
“And it shows that for a long time, Vietnam has not really sparked the necessary efforts to strengthen its internal strength and take advantage of all opportunities and associations that Vietnam has.”
“All efforts to negotiate to allow one country to open markets for Vietnam to enjoy low export duties or preferential access to the market, the second largest beneficiary, is China – as a supplier of intermediary products, or inputs to Vietnam’s export industries.”
The overwhelming dependence of Vietnam’s economy on China has caused devastating consequences when Beijinh encountered a crisis, and then millions of workers, farmers and business owners of Vietnam will lose their jobs or go bankruptcy – leading to serious consequences for the country.
The main pathogens and dangerous contagious viruses are usually born from countries with poor health, where the authorities are only concerned about protecting the regime, less concerned about the health of the people because they apply the model of dictatorship.
In order to reduce its dependence on China, the CPV must first transform itself into a democratic and liberal institution, thus more than 90 million people have the right to participate in running the country to make it developed.
Hai Yen from Ha Noi – Thoibao.de (Translated)