There is a plan to propose Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong and Nguyen Xuan Phuc to continue in the four highest-ranking leaders group (Four Pillar) after the 13th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV), according to some comments in Vietnam’s public on January 9.
The Central Committee’s 15th Plenum for considering the Four Pillars option and the special cases of those over 65 years old, is about to take place in Hanoi, possibly on January 15.
The 13th National Congress, which marks the handover of leadership every five years, will open on January 25 and close on February 2.
Towards this last moment, Vietnam’s public is discussing the plan that the Politburo may present to the Party Central Committee at the 15th Plenum to vote.
Accordingly, it is possible that the 15th Plennum will consider and vote for option One:
General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong
State President: Nguyen Xuan Phuc
Prime Minister: Vuong Dinh Hue
National Assembly Chairman: Pham Minh Chinh
Option Two is a little different to reverse the two titles:
Prime Minister: Pham Minh Chinh
Chairman of the National Assembly: Vuong Dinh Hue
There are opinions among the people in Vietnam that these may be two options supported by the Politburo and will be held at the 15th Plenum.
However, there are also opinions saying that the above proposals are predictive.
Prime Minister Nguyen Xuan Phuc issued Decision 1722/QD-TTg dated November 3, 2020, on the List of State secrets of the Party, in which state secrets are personnel plan for of the Party as Top Secret.
Including ‘top secret’ information such as:
– Decisions, conclusions, statements, plans, reports, notices, official letters of the Politburo, the Secretariat, the Central Committee for the Protection of Internal Politics on the results of inspection and verification of the issue Politics of the members of the Politburo, the Secretariat and former members of the Politburo, the Secretariat which have not been made public,
– Reports, reports, notices, decisions, conclusions and official letters of the Party Central Committee on the preparation process, project and personnel plans for the Politburo members the General Secretary, the State President, the Prime Minister, Chairman of the National Assembly, Standing Secretariat which is not publicized.
Decision 1722/QD-TTg takes effect from November 3, 2020.
Few can confirm in the context of limited political information in Vietnam.
But it is possible that the 15th Plenum will send out more public signals to let people know.
On The Diplomat on January 7, analyst Nguyen Khac Giang has questioned that the CPV in the next congress will choose “stability” or “democracy within the Party.”
Choosing any way about personnel is risky, even “septic” as the Soviet Union chooses members of the Politburo over 70 years old in the past Leonid Brezhnev, this author wrote in English.
The upcoming leadership positions of Vietnam are very interested and awaited in the context that Vietnam is expected to be an economic bright spot in the region.
Speaking on December 28, General Secretary cum President of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong said that in 2020, the economy grows positively, reaching 2.91%, contributing to the GDP growth of 5 years on average 5, 9%/year.
He said: “Public debt decreased from 63.7% of GDP at the beginning of the term to 55% in 2019; Although there will be an increase in 2020 due to the increased need for spending in response to natural disasters and epidemics, it will still be 56.8%, below the safety threshold set by the National Assembly.”
Recently, Vietnam is forecasted to be the 19th largest economy in the world, surpassing Thailand, and Taiwan, according to a London-based research institute.
The Center for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) publishes its annual report. They say 2028, they think China will become the largest economy in the world, surpassing the US, five years earlier than their previous prediction.
CEBR was impressed with Vietnam and said that by 2020, Vietnam is already the 37th largest economy in the world, behind Thailand (25) and Taiwan (21). But they predict that by 2035, Vietnam will be better in size. the economy will stand 19 worlds, while Thailand 21 and Taiwan 26.
Also in December 2020, the Japan Center for Economic Research (JCER) announced forecasts that by 2023, Vietnam will become an upper-middle-income country, and by 2035 Vietnam’s GDP will pass Taiwan.
JCER predicts that the per capita income of Vietnam will be $11,000 by 2035 and the scale of the economy will be the second largest in the region, after Indonesia.