Vuong Dinh Hue is one of two people that Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)’s chief Nguyen Phu Trong wanted to join the party’s Politburo in 2013 but failed, the other is Mr. Nguyen Ba Thanh who died many years ago. After Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung was knocked out of the Politburo, Vuong Dinh Hue has emerged and moved quickly. At the end of May this year, when the National Assembly is formed after the general election, Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue will be the chairman of the country’s highest legislative body. Everything has been arranged, the election is just a formal game.
The 13th National Congress of the party ended. Mr. Trong continued to hold the position of its General Secretary. The first thing that can be said is that his continued holding of this chair is not due to his prestige or what people love him, he is simply the most powerful force that no one can remove. It is said that now whom Trong chooses as his successor, his future is guaranteed. Is that the truth?
Mr. Hue appeared perhaps to rely more on Mr. Trong than to help Mr. Trong. When Trong fought with Mr. Dung, Hue silently avoided and let Mr. Thanh suffer alone. Hue is a person in accounting and finance, perhaps that’s why he is good at calculating? This may be true or not, but it is clear that Hue is a good person with calculations. Currently, it is rumored that Mr. Trong will stay in his post for two more years and give it to Hue.
May Mr. Trong stays longer because the person he chooses to replace him is not strong enough, so it také a while to be fully mature. However, Hue should pay attention that Mr. Dinh The Huynh was also selected by Trong as a seed to replace him in the middle of his term, but in the end, Trong did not give up his seat to Huynh, but also made Huynh mentally sick with the confusing mind. Politics is a double-edged sword, very easy to suffer.
There is information that Vo Van Thuong is also a seed
The fact that Mr. Thuong was assigned the standing member of the Central Secretariat also raised the rumor that he is also a candidate to replace Trong in the middle of his term. This may also be true because Thuong made his progress very quickly when he returned to the Secretariat. It is reported that Thuong was the person that Trong installed on the Party Committee of Ho Chi Minh City, but being knocked out by Le Thanh Hai so he returned to the central party organization and was assigned by Mr. Trong to be the head of the Central Commission on Propaganda and Education to wait until Trong passes his throne.
Perhaps Trong is nurturing both of them, and until he is about to give power, he will choose the person he believes most to empower. However, the notion that Trong will hand his power over to his successor is not very convincing, because everyone knows that Mr. Trong is a man who lives and dies because of power. On April 14, 2019, he had a stroke in Kien Giang, and then his health was extremely weak, he refused to give up his seat to anyone.
As he was old and weak, while holding the most powerful position in the country, there must be no shortage of flattering people around for his favor. There is a long-distance between Mr. Trong and the next generation. Compared with Mr. Trong, like father and son, the age gap is quite far, while Mr. Hue and Mr. Trong are like brothers. In his eyes, Vo Van Thuong is still just young, not hard enough. There is still challenge, fostering, and shaping.
From now to 2 years later, Vietnamese politics will have many changes. There are too many people looking at Trong’s position. If Mr. Trong, unfortunately, has a health problem, then it is very likely that there will be a fierce internal fight among candidates, but if Trong is as strong as he is now, maybe the politics of Vietnam will be quieter.
There was news that Vuong Dinh Hue’s roadway was prepared by Nguyen Phu Trong
There is an opinion that Mr. Trong cannot retire right now, that is that Mr. Hue has not had time to go through the stages of training. He had to be a secretary, head of a province, and in order to avoid the sound of the General Secretary is only elected by the Party, the Party elected, not having the recognition of the national representative, Mr. Hue must go through the step of being parliament’s chairman. Thus, Mr. Hue must become Hanoi’s secretary to replace Mr. Hoang Trung Hai, who has suddenly mentioned the shortcoming of many years ago, a small defect in dozens of other serious crimes associated with the government of PM Dung, but enough to withdraw from the post of Hanoi’s secretary, making room for Hue. And the fact that Mr. Hue will be elected chairman of the National Assembly is just a matter of procedure, and it is only legal, that is not the whole term so that when running for General Secretary, he must still be under 65 years old. Thus, Mr. Trong will have to apply for retirement in the middle of his term, and the Central Committee will have an unexpected meeting to elect Hue as the General Secretary at the end of 2022 and early 2023. Hue is said to leave his parliament chair post to Ms. Truong Thi Mai.
This news is just rumors, but with Vietnamese politics, rumors sometimes even go far ahead of mainstream information, so it cannot be denied.
Until now, Trong’s plans, if any, can still be changed at the last minute. Perhaps the alternative solution only happens when Mr. Trong’s health does not allow him, but he is in good health and it is difficult for him to give his post to anyone. Mr. Trong still has the same ambition to rule for lifelike Ho Chi Minh, which is not difficult to realize.
It is very easy to see that, Mr. Hue is completely not what Mr. Trong wants. Previously, Mr. Trong supported Dinh The Huynh with the aim of taking over the General Secretary, Mr. Huynh himself is a Marxist theorist, that is, Huynh is also a conservative schooler like Mr. Trong. On the other hand, Mr. Hue is an economist but not a Marxist person. Mr. Hue is more radical than Mr. Trong, which is easy to recognize. Meanwhile, Mr. Thuong came up from the propaganda department, also specialized in Marxism. Therefore, for Mr. Trong, Mr. Hue is not very satisfied.
Falling to China will be strong
With his current health, people think that Trong cannot afford to continue to control the whole system for another 5 years. Under Nguyen Phu Trong’s rule, Vietnam has stepped back three times in the face of Chinese threats and pressure in the South China Sea (East Sea) disputes. In March 2018, Vietnam withdrew the oil and gas exploration contract with Repsol of Spain in the Vanguard Bank area. In 2019, after a four-month confrontation at Red Phong Lan operated by Russian Oil and Gas Group Rosneft, Vietnam canceled the survey contract with Noble Group. Vietnam has almost stopped exploring oil and gas in this area. Giving up sovereignty for China, Mr. Trong has continued to accept the loss of national interests for factional interests.
Thanks to those steps backward, Mr. Trong’s influence in the Communist Party has become stronger than ever. Perhaps Trong did so because of his political ambitions. It has been 31 years, the rule that whoever is most pro-China is that of the general secretary, whoever is most trusted by China, that person is firmly in his position. And up to now, the force of Mr. Trong is still the strongest.
Mr. Trong is a man with great ambitions. Ph.D. in party building, Moscow University, Mr. Trong has been secretly prepared for many years for the General Secretary position. And when he holds the position of General Secretary, he must prove that all must be led by the party. That means he leads. If he is not dead, all must be decided by him. And of course, his successor as general secretary will also be decided by him.
Never delude Mr. Trong’s kindness. The two terms of General Secretary, at the hands of him, PM Dung, the Godfather of Vu Huy Hoang, Dinh La Thang, Tran Bac Ha, Tram Be, Nguyen Van Binh, had to retire. Le Thanh Hai, twenty years of controlling HCM City, was knocked out of the seat of power. Those are opponents, and with allies like Dinh The Huynh, he also coldly backed into the wings of the political stage. For a man who falls to China close to Xi Jinping, he has such terrifying power, and when the power is higher he becomes more ruthless, the colder. If you hold Nguyen Phu Trong in hopes of inheriting the power chair, it can be said that it is also full of risks, not easy.
To create his own strength, Mr. Hue needs to learn Pham Minh Chinh
The blood of fame has never calmed down or decreased in Mr. Trong’s body. The more he fought, the more he won and the effort he made for a tight relationship with Beijing was not easy for him to let go of. Mr. Hue needs to understand that, the lesson about the seed of Dinh The Huynh is still hot.
Currently, Mr. Pham Minh Chinh has a very good relationship with Beijing. Mr. Chinh is a strong opponent for the general secretary position after 5 years. As the chairman of the National Assembly, Mr. Hue needs to take advantage of searching for links with Beijing to gain support from power, so that the future of Mr. Hue will be guaranteed. As for Mr. Trong, it can be said that it did not guarantee Mr. Hue’s succession to the throne.
The fact shows that Mr. Hue is a very skillful person hiding and waiting for the time to come when the time comes to be king. Comparing him with Nguyen Ba Thanh will emerge. The party cannot escape its attachment to the Chinese leadership yet, Mr. Hue must understand that. And whether Mr. Hue inherits the General Secretary post left by Mr. Trong or not depends on his plans to act as president of the National Assembly. Shaking hands with China guarantees power rather than hiding in Mr. Trong’s shadow. Years to come see what Mr. Vuong Dinh Hue will do. Wait and then it will clear.