What do foreign observers say about Vietnam’s GDP growth of 5.64% in H1?

Vietnam’s General Statistics Office (GSO) announced on June 29 that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first 6 months of the year increased by 5.64%, higher than the 1.82% growth rate of the first 6 months of 2020, but lower than the growth rate of the same period in 2018 and 2019.

The agency said Vietnam’s GDP in the second quarter of 2021 was estimated to increase by 6.61% over the same period last year, higher than the growth rate of 0.39% in the second quarter of 2020 but lower than the growth rate of 6.73% in the second quarter of 2018 and 2019.

Bloomberg’s report on June 29 commented:

Vietnam was successful in limiting infections in the early months of the pandemic, but an outbreak that started in late April forced industrial parks to temporarily close important electronic equipment manufacturing centers.”

Bloomberg quoted a comment by Gareth Leather, senior Asia economist at Capital Economics: “When looking deeper, not just focusing on the year-on-year jump in growth due to a weak base of comparison, the GDP statistics show that Vietnam is facing heavy economic losses due to efforts to control the virus.”

With sporadic outbreaks continuing, the economy is likely to be hit harder in the coming months,” he wrote in a note.

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Bloomberg also cites a note by Standard Chartered economist Tim Leelahaphan:

In our view, rising inflation reduces the likelihood of further rate cuts. We also do not expect a rate hike, despite improving economic growth and credit. However, the possibility of a rate hike could gradually emerge if inflation and growth accelerate faster than expected.”

Japan’s Nikkei Asia website said: “According to the Asian Development Bank forecast in April, it is possible that Vietnam’s GDP will increase by 6.7% in 2021, the highest among Southeast Asian countries. . But if the country faces difficulties in vaccine purchase and vaccination the resumption of all economic activities in the country including tourism will take longer and hinder growth.”

According to statistics of Vietnam on June 29, in the structure of the economy in the first 6 months of 2021, the agriculture, forestry, and fishery sector account for 12.15%; industry and construction accounted for 37.61%; service sector accounted for 41.13%; product tax minus product subsidies accounted for 9.11%.

Regarding GDP used in the first 6 months of 2021, final consumption increased by 3.56% over the same period in 2020; accumulated assets increased by 5.67%; exports of goods and services increased by 24.05% while imports of goods and services increased by 22.76%.

Thoibao.de (Translated)

Source: https://www.bbc.com/vietnamese/vietnam-57651587

Kasse animation 7.8.2023