With To Lam’s promotion to General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, this is the first time the party leader has been held by a police general.
It is worth noting that General Lam is completely different from his predecessor Tran Dai Quang in the Ministry of Public Security. He left the Ministry of Public Security to take a position in the “Four Pillars” but was still capable of arranging for his junior to replace him and hold the ministry. In fact, it can be considered that he is currently holding three positions: General Secretary, State President and Minister of Public Security.
Internal sources told thoibao.de that Lam still directs the Ministry of Public Security, as when he was still the minister. Senior Lieutenant General Luong Tam Quang is only the executor, drafting and signing decisions on documents.
Upon promotion to General Secretary, Lam automatically became Secretary of the Central Military Commission, the most powerful position in the Defense Ministry in terms of the Party. He also has two people from Hung Yen, in important positions in the Defense Ministry. The first is Deputy Minister Senior Lieutenant General Hoang Xuan Chien – Member of the Party Central Committee. Chien is the second in command among the deputy ministers, after Permanent Deputy Minister Nguyen Tan Cuong. However, if things go well, Gen. Chien can surpass Gen. Cuong to become minister, as Quang once surpassed Tran Quoc To in the Ministry of Public Security.
In addition to Gen. Chien, Hung Yen also has Lieutenant General Nguyen Hong Thai – Member of the Party Central Committee, Commander of Military Region 1.
With the role of Secretary of the Central Military Commission, Lam will certainly find every way to support his fellow Hung Yeners in the Army. If he can do this, he will control both the Ministry of Public Security and the Defense Ministry.
Thus, Lam’s current problem is how to support his fellow Hung Yeners in the Defense Ministry, to move towards controlling this ministry.
Once he has both the army and the police in his hands, Lam can completely abolish the current “collective king” political system to completely seize power. If he can abolish the Politburo, he can carry out institutional reforms like Gorbachev or monopolize rule like Putin.
The 10th Plenum of the Central Committee is taking place, nearly a month earlier than expected. Notably, in his opening speech, Lam emphasized the innovation of the Party’s leadership and ruling methods. According to him, these innovations focus on narrowing the role of the Party apparatus, avoiding overlapping with the state apparatus. If he can do this, he will leave the most prominent mark, compared to previous general secretaries.
But “institutional reform” is easy to say, but very difficult to implement. Because it affects the interests of each individual, in a huge apparatus. Narrowing down rights means taking away benefits, certainly, many party officials will disagree, and there will be opposition, both implicit and explicit.
Thus, to reform the system, first of all, Lam must bring all factions into the framework he has set. Only then can he suppress the opposition, and from there reform the system. Even if he controls the forces well, Lam can change the regime, from a dictatorship of the Party to a dictatorship of an individual.
The political chessboard is still turning, and the game has just begun, Lam needs a lot of time to carry out “institutional reform” as he presented. Success or failure is still unknown, because it depends on the results of the struggle in the coming time.
The dual political system of the Party and the State has long been operating in a very complex and overlapping manner. This helps officials, from high to low, even if they do wrong, have an excuse to blame, without having to take any responsibility. It is not easy to eliminate.
To reform successfully, Lam must first control the conservative elements in the Party, even the whole Party. If he can do that, Lam can overthrow the Party, so that he can become king. This is also a “revolution” in the Party.
Does Mr. To Lam dare or not?
Tran Chuong – Thoibao.de
