Why does General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong still keep his post?

The Economist on January 23 in the article “Untying the Tiger” made the comment that “Vietnam needs a new leader.” Accordingly, there are very few countries that possess as many advantages as Vietnam does today to become rich but political paralysis could slow development, and General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam Nguyen Phu Trong could be an obstacle.

Analysts have long made comments that the corruption problem of Nguyen Tan Dung’s Government, during his two terms as Prime Minister (2006 – 2015), was out of control. That is why, after the 12th Party National Congress in 2016, with the failure of Prime Minister Dung, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong immediately launched a “burn the furnace” campaign. This is a copy of the “slay tigers and exterminate flies” campaign that his counterpart Xi Jinping in China has launched since coming to power in 2012. But since 2016 until now, Trong has yet got successful in his campaign.

One of Mr. Trong’s wishes for his successor is to inherit and continue the work of “burning the furnace” – fighting corruption. However, up to now, Trong has turned 80 years old, but he has still not found a reliable successor.

According to analysts, that is the reason why Trong became a hostage in his own anti-corruption campaign. If in this case, the Party cannot eliminate all corrupt people or elements who are not loyal to the Party’s ideals, then at least, in Trong’s opinion, the Party must be led by a figure with the same motives like him.

According to The Economist, it is clear that Trong has not found a trustworthy successor, so he must serve a third term as General Secretary. And it will be very interesting if Trong announces the name of his successor in 2026.

The Economist then advised that “Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong needs to end this state of concern. It is best for the General Secretary to withdraw, letting the Party choose a practical successor.”

According to analysts, the above is not as simple as that, but there are many problems behind it, showing that it is not easy for Trong to accept leaving power at this time easy. It’s not simply a matter of not having a replacement for Trong. The problem is, will the person who replaces him guarantee his property, life and safety?

According to observers, at the 8th Plenum of the 13th Central Committee, in the closing session, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong officially announced for the first time that he would retire at the end of the term of the 13th tenure, citing his age too high and has sat for 3 consecutive terms as the party chief.

Experts confirm that Trong absolutely, or never, wants to retire, but wants to sit in this position for the rest of his life. For more than 10 years as General Secretary, Trong has made many enemies and incurred a lot of resentment from his comrades in the Party. More than ever, at this time, Trong has been thinking about the rule “fish eat ants and one day ants eat fish.”

Human resource organization under the command of Trong as the head of the Human Resources Subcommittee of the two recent terms, has clearly fallen into a serious crisis. The number of Central Committee members and senior leaders who have been sent to prison in droves in recent years is large in both number and size of title. This shows that the quality of personnel selected by subcommittee is very problematic, due to subjective factors from the General Secretary and the relatively high possibility of “retroactivity.”

Those are the reasons why, according to observers, the next personnel to replace Mr. Trong as well as the four-pillar apparatus that Trong wants must also ensure his absolute safety after he retires, so as not to be prosecuted by rival forces within the Party.

Experts say that Trong is trying to build a leadership team of his side in the Politburo takes over 2/3 of its members or all 4/4 of the four pillars of the upcoming 14th National Congress so Trong can still manipulate and control them, after retiring. Only then he will eat well and sleep peacefully in the last days of his life.

Looking at his treatment of former President Nguyen Xuan Phuc or incumbent Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, it is clear how he will live and die in his final days of life?

Not to mention the rise of Minister of Public Security To Lam, a man who is plotting and trying to “win the throne” with Trong, is something that cannot be ignored./.