Despite rumors that General Secretary of the ruling Communist Party Nguyen Phu Trong’s health continued to have problems, the state-controlled media did not mention his activities at all, since his “unexpected” appearance in the opening session of the National Assembly meeting on January 15. This makes the public even more curious.
According to observers, since the end of 2023 until now, there have been continuous speculations related to Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong’s medical condition. But, the fact that he goes in and out of the hospital, regardless of the reason, is definitely real.
In Vietnam’s current political situation, Professor Jonathan London of Leiden University, the Netherlands, commented: “Vietnam is entering a period of instability and uncertainty. How long will this power vacuum last?”
As Trong’s power is declining, his health is said to be not very good. Immediately, information surfaced regarding his retirement to pass the “throne” to the next person. Along with that, the question of who will replace him as the party chief is of more concern than ever.
According to knowledgeable people, this transfer of power, on the outside, was carried out quietly, but inside it was very urgent. That’s why there are so many conspiracy theories. Even so, the fight was so fierce that recently, the Central Committee had to postpone an extraordinary meeting.
According to BBC Vietnamese, Professor Alexander L. Vuving, from the US Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies, assessed:
“The most likely candidates to succeed Nguyen Phu Trong as General Secretary are: Vuong Dinh Hue, Chairman of the National Assembly and Truong Thi Mai, Permanent Secretary of the Secretariat, Head of the Central Organizing Committee.”
Analysts have a different assessment, the current race for the General Secretary position is a “three-horse” with Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, Chairman of the National Assembly Vuong Dinh Hue, and State President Vo Van Thuong. But don’t forget an unruly dark horse named To Lam, Minister of Public Security.
Among the four people just mentioned, Vo Van Thuong is said to meet many of the factors that meet Trong’s requirements. However, Vo Van Thuong is still young, his experience and reputation are not yet “ripen.” As for Pham Minh Chinh or Vuong Dinh Hue, in terms of ability, expertise and experience, they can be temporarily accepted. But public opinion evaluates that Mr. Chinh and Hue’s reputation is not really high, and both have serious weaknesses, which is a moral issue, because they have an “extramarital” sexual relationship.
On social networks, in Vietnamese political forums, people spread and share news related to this race. Accordingly, Minister To Lam also launched an attack to discredit former Youth Union leaders, such as Vo Van Thuong and Truong Thi Mai.
Previously, To Lam and the Ministry of Public Security continuously handled cases related to Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan’s International Advanced Joint Stock Company (AIC) – a character believed to have emotional relationship with PM Pham Minh Chinh. Of course, To Lam’s goal is to discredit him.
According to analysts, To Lam is a figure who has had the ambition to become head of the Communist Party of Vietnam for a long time. At the same time, To Lam is the only figure with absolute authority in the Party, compared to the current key leaders of the Party. Because To Lam has the advantage of grasping all the “intel” of each senior leader in Ba Dinh.
By exposing a series of big cases, such as “rescue flight”, “Viet A test kit”, AIC, etc.To Lam has affirmed his unique position. At the same time, he also appears to be the dominant power on the Vietnamese political chessboard. To Lam has proven that he is the person with the right to live and kill in the entire political system of the Communist Party of Vietnam, to become king in the Party.
But the fact that Minister To Lam opened too many fronts to attack most potential candidates for the position of General Secretary, unintentionally motivated other individuals and groups to unite to fight back.
That is why, recently, news appeared about the race to replace the General Secretary, between Police General To Lam and Army General Phan Van Giang. Currently, the advantage is in favor of the military. Accordingly, Defense Minister Phan Van Giang received the support of the majority of Politburo members.
Recently, there have been rumors that Minister of Public Security To Lam is quietly carrying out a “gunless coup.” The purpose is to eliminate, and eventually strip, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong of his position. However, with too great ambition, Minister of Public Security To Lam has turned “friends into enemies” and his ambition of “climbing high” will lead to painful falls, which is hard to avoid.
Because he cannot deal with many enemies at the same time. Let’s wait and see To Lam’s failure in the final phase./.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
