Forcing Vuong Dinh Hue to retire but To Lam still does not want to become State President, probably willing to dismiss incumbent party chief

A leaked source said that on April 25, the Communist Party of Vietnam’s Politburo held a meeting. As a result, Tran Thanh Man, Standing Vice Chairman of the National Assembly, is proposed to became State President; Ms. Truong Thi Mai- as Chairwoman of the National Assembly; General Luong Cuong, Chairman of the General Political Department of the Vietnam People’s Army, is the Standing Committee of the Secretariat. On April 26, the Central Committee will hold an extraordinary plenum approve these changes.

Vuong Dinh Hue, Politburo member and Chairman of the National Assembly, will be removed from all positions in the Party and state.

If this information is correct, Minister of Public Security To Lam does not take one of these empty positions, after fierce fighting caused two of the Four Pillars- the four highest positions of the regime to fall. Initially, when Lam eliminated Vo Van Thuong, public opinion said that Lam wants to temporarily become State President in order to enjoy a special case for the 14th National Congress of the party slated in early 2026.

However, later developments, the Nghe An political faction pushes Phan Dinh Trac to compete for the position of Minister of Public Security, making To Lam not dare to sit as State President but had to stay in his position.

After the Nghe An political faction expressed its desire to take the Minister of Public Security for its people, To Lam attacked the highest-ranking figure in the group – Vuong Dinh Hue. Defeating Hue, To Lam was able to eliminate the most serious opponent, capable of competing with him for the General Secretary position, and at the same time force the Nghe An group give up its ambition to take over the Ministry of Public Security.

Up to this point, it seemed certain that Hue had fallen, and the Politburo had an emergency meeting to redistribute the vacant seats. However, in this time, there is no portion of To Lam.

What is worth mentioning is that it was To Lam who knocked down two senior officials, but let others benefit, which is very unusual. There are two possibilities that have happened, either To Lam could not arrange the position of Minister of Public Security for his junior from his native province of Hung Yen, so he did not dare to leave the ministry, to accept one of the two nominal and non-real positions in the Four Pillars. Or, To Lam waits until he finishes cutting down these two pillars, then cut down the biggest pillar- the General Secretary’s position, to ascend the “throne” himself.

If Lam sits as State President but cannot control the Ministry of Public Security, it will be a great danger for him. This was carefully analyzed by political observers, right when Thuong was forced to retire.

Therefore, the fact that Head of the Central Committee’s Commission for Internal Affairs Phan Dinh Trac jumped in to disrupt, wanting to reduce Lam’s power in the Ministry of Public Security, is also considered a dangerous move. Even though Lam defeated Hue but could not handle the Nghe An group at the Ministry of Public Security, it is also possible that Lam did it for someone else to benefit.

Lam’s intention is to aim for the highest position in the Party, this is clear. After eliminating Hue, it can be said that the centipedes around General Secretary Trong gradually disbanded. Previously, head of the Central Committee’s Commission for Inspection Tran Cam Tu was ahead of Lam in dealing with corrupt officials, but now, on the contrary, Tu is following Lam’s move. That shows that General Secretary Trong’s remaining forces, after To Lam’s rebellion, were also afraid of Lam. And it can be said that the opportunity to depose General Secretary Trong has never been better than now. Most likely, Lam will deal with Trong after finishing Hue.

There are less than 3 weeks left until the 9th Plenum takes place, but the Party Central Committee cannot wait and has to hold an extraordinary meeting. This shows that both sides are in a hurry. The replacements were assigned seats hastily, because if it takes too long, the situation might change and the opportunity would be lost. As for police chief Lam, he may also need to quickly divide the seats to determine the next direction.

Vietnam’s communist leaderhip is in chaos. In the near future, there will be many good movies to watch. Even though Lam is the strongest, his enemies are increasing day by day, and their feud with To Lam is also getting deeper and deeper.

If Lam wins the position of General Secretary, surely other forces in the Party will not leave him alone.

Kasse animation 7.8.2023