On February 24, 2022, Vietnam voiced “extreme concern about the armed conflict situation in Ukraine” and “called on all parties to exercise restraint” and “not use force, protect the people, continue dialogue in search of a peaceful solution.” Like many countries in the world, Vietnam only made a general appeal, avoiding condemning Russia, Hanoi’s biggest ally.
Will Russia’s attack on Ukraine push Vietnam into an awkward position? Does Hanoi have to watch out for similar dangers in the future with neighboring China? RFI Vietnamese interviewed Research Director Benoît de Tréglodé, Institute for Strategic Studies, French Military School (IRSEM), on this topic:
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RFI: As Russia sent troops to attack Ukraine, called for a coup d’état and listed President Zelensky as “the number one enemy” that needed to be eliminated, Hanoi said it was “very concerned about the situation of armed conflict in Ukraine.” What do you think about this statement?
Benoît de Tréglodé: First of all, the Vietnamese government is in a difficult position. Russia is Vietnam’s top strategic ally. Hanoi has a comprehensive strategic partnership agreement with Moscow and it is one of three such agreements signed by Vietnam, along with China and India. Russia and Vietnam are really at a very important strategic cooperation level.
But at the same time, people often forget that Vietnam also has a very solid relationship with Ukraine. In terms of trade, Ukraine is an important market for Vietnamese exports to Europe and is also a country with which Vietnam has a good strategic relationship. Part of the defense industry of the former Soviet Union is located on the territory of Ukraine, that is, of present-day Ukraine.
It is true that Vietnam is in a difficult position in this crisis because Vietnam has interests from both sides. In this context, for Hanoi, it is impossible to find a way to choose sides. It should be noted that a part of Vietnam’s weapons from the 1990s was modernized thanks to Ukrainian industrialists. This presence also lies in the fact that many Vietnamese leaders have lived and trained in Ukraine and maintain personal relationships with many key Ukrainian figures. From this perspective, the situation is indeed complicated for Hanoi.
In addition, it must now also be seen what the Russia-Ukraine conflict means in Southeast Asia. In this area, Russia is a remote country. Slightly different from Vietnam, the fledgling Democratic Republic was recognized by the Soviet Union in January 1950 when it was still fighting against the French colonialists, having a specific relationship with Russia, similar to Laos and Cambodia, the rest of ASEAN, the reaction was found to be relatively confused, ambiguous or downplayed. In fact, Russia has no commercial or military presence in Southeast Asia, other than Vietnam. The Russia-Ukraine crisis raises a series of questions, first of all about the impact on the economies of the region, and about the possible impact on the evacuation of citizens of these countries living in Ukraine.
Therefore, for Hanoi, the Ukraine crisis is primarily related to the economic consequences for the Vietnamese economy. I would like to reiterate the close economic relationship between Vietnam and Ukraine. We see that the stock markets in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City plummeted as soon as Russia started invading Ukraine. Next is how to protect about 5,000 Vietnamese citizens living in Ukraine, especially in areas directly attacked. For example, there are about 100 overseas Vietnamese living in Donetsk, more than in the cities of Kharkov and Odessa, as well as in areas hit by Russian military air raids.
Therefore, Vietnam faces a real problem, first of all considering the economic impact, solving the security problem for the expatriates, and secondly maintaining the historical relationship that has made the country political. The Vietnamese government is in a complicated position to take a straightforward and clear stance on the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
RFI: To the West, Russia is the aggressor of neighboring Ukraine. But China does not see it that way and calls for the two sides to negotiate while Beijing and Moscow seem to be forming a new axis. Looking at the consequences from the current context, does Vietnam have reason to be concerned with China?
Benoît de Tréglodé: Letting Russia invade Ukraine without interference is giving China freedom of action. This is perhaps partly Vietnam’s view of this conflict: It is an indirect conflict. Of course, the issue of European collective security is quite remote from Southeast Asia or in Asia, but for most countries in the region, this event led to thinking about how the West would react in a different way that conflict, about the meaning of the alliances being negotiated. It is necessary here to mention the Indo-Pacific strategic framework, the growing political and commercial competition between China and the United States and in the context that both of the world’s largest powers are looking to turning Southeast Asia into a buffer zone.
We see the reaction of all Southeast Asian countries to always promote a peaceful resolution of the conflict, encourage Russia and Ukraine to resume negotiations based on international law. It can be seen that it is a very cautious reaction. Also don’t forget the Russia-Ukraine crisis in 2014 with the loss of the Crimea by Kiev, Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, are extremely tight-lipped. Currently, Hanoi is also unable to publicly condemn Russia’s military intervention due to its relationship with Moscow. But this is also an opportunity to evaluate the security partnership between Russia and China, which has made Vietnam increasingly worried since the last few years.
There is a real debate at the regional level about Ukraine and Russia, but separate from military activities in Europe. What many Southeast Asian countries, as well as Vietnam, are paying attention to is the emergence of a new international order being discussed by the two current powers, China and Russia, and in fact, this order rejects the current international order. tradition and history. Vietnam and many other countries fear being held hostage during those changes.
RFI: There are some opinions that point out the geographical similarities between Vietnam and China with the case of Ukraine and Russia to explain potential risks in Southeast Asia. However, the military reality here is not like in Europe, for example, there is no NATO. Please explain more about this point!
Benoît de Tréglodé : The scope of operations in Europe and Southeast Asia is completely different. The only similarity between these two parts of the world is the presence of a great power politically, militarily and geographically, using the pretext of “ancient historical relationship” in the way the relationship is handled. with neighboring countries.
It is the only point that connects the case of Ukraine and Russia with the case of China and the whole of Southeast Asia. The rest is completely different. You cited the case that NATO is the central issue in the competition between Russia and the European Union today with Ukraine stuck in defense policy and influence between the two major blocs. This is currently not the case in Southeast Asia.
But looking at it another way, it can also be related to the ongoing Indo-Pacific strategic discussion with the intention of the US, as well as China, to maintain influence in Southeast Asia, in the future when ASEAN countries want to stay somewhat neutral, which is written in their foreign policy. This neutrality is also enshrined in Vietnam’s defense policy. I would like to reiterate the “4 No’s” policy in the Vietnam National Defense White Paper, according to which any concept of military alliance forcing Vietnam to choose sides is completely unconstitutional and impossible.
Of course, what is happening in Ukraine has many consequences and is watched with concern by Southeast Asian countries, but in the future, China will find a legitimate excuse if it needs to intervene in neighboring countries, not necessarily about the deteriorating security situation in Europe as this is relatively remote for these countries.
RFI: President Zelensky is upset because Ukraine is now alone against “enemy” Russia. The case of Ukraine further reinforces the stance of not getting too close to the US or any military alliance against China, as well as Vietnam’s “4 No” policy?
Benoît de Tréglodé : Beijing’s reaction, as well as that of Foreign Minister Wang Yi at the Munich Security Conference last week, was listened to by Vietnam. The Chinese side argued that the United States intervened too much in terms of security in this crisis and exacerbated the crisis. Therefore, I would like to reiterate that for Vietnam, getting closer to one side or another is against the strategy of this country if we look at the history of Vietnam from the past 70 years, since the end of World War II. There is strong evidence for the typical case of the Ukraine conflict that this could also be dangerous for Vietnam.
Therefore, I think that for US foreign policy in Southeast Asia, the crisis in Ukraine will not strengthen the ability to attract or mobilize countries that still have some anxiety or hesitation about their intentions in conflicts that do not concern them. The next important thing is that in the political culture of most of the leaders of these countries, as well as in the public opinion, they really think that a state must have the means to intervene or defend itself in case of need and it is the responsibility of the head of state to protect national sovereignty in the event of an attack. All these factors are explained, making the Southeast Asian countries feel as least involved as possible and take a near-neutral stance by referring to international law even if this type of intervention, like Russia attack Ukraine, challenge the legitimacy.
RFI: Will Russia’s deployment of troops to attack Ukraine become a precedent for China in the future?
Benoît de Tréglodé : Perhaps it is not advisable to draw such easy conclusions. Certainly for the PLA strategists, the current war in Ukraine is a great case study, as a kind of “war games,” allowing them to understand how countries around the world stand on this type of geopolitical issue.
Asia is completely right to pay attention, but not about the military situation but to see how other countries, including the West, react to this kind of unilateral intervention, which blatantly violates the international law, as well as how the West might react in the event of a future conflict in Asia.
RFI Vietnamese would like to thank Research Director Benoît de Tréglodé, Institute for Strategic Studies, French Military School (IRSEM).
Thoibao.de (Translated)
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