Through the latest images of the General Secretary cum State President To Lam attending the Vietnam Fatherland Front Congress on the morning of October 17, some people believe that he seems to be in a rather anxious mood.
Perhaps, that is related to the fact that the 15th National Assembly will elect a new State President, in its 8th session starting from October 21.
Thus, Lam will give up his role as head of state, and the role of commanding the Vietnamese armed forces, to focus on leading the ruling party. That will cause limitations and affect his foreign affairs work.
According to international observers, this is something that Lam absolutely does not want. But in the context of “being surrounded by enemies on all sides” between hostile forces within the Party, and both Russia and China, he was forced to accept. He was even said to have proactively withdrawn to reduce the pressure.
According to some speculations, Lam will not back down, and will continue to stay in the position of General Secretary and State President, with the aim of continuing to implement the reform plan, bringing Vietnam into a “new era.”
However, this is not a matter of “wanting it is getting it”. Because this is a matter of principle, which has been maintained for decades. That is, the Communist Party of Vietnam always tries to maintain the tradition of “collective leadership, individual responsibility”,\ in order to balance, as well as control personal power.
Lam’s desire to continue to hold both positions, head of the Party and the State, will harm the above-mentioned principle of collective leadership. This is the reason why a majority of leaders in the Politburo and Secretariat firmly opposed it. Not stopping there, Lam’s statements such as “…Vietnam always stands on the side of justice” seemed to have made Beijing unhappy.
While Vietnam’s political scene is in hot period, the Beijing leadership proactively invited General Luong Cuong – Standing member of the Secretariat, to visit China and meet with President Xi Jinping.
Immediately after that, Chinese Prime Minister Li Qiang visited Vietnam for 3 days, with the statement “continuing to support Vietnam in maintaining the path of Socialism.” These are considered signals from China, indirectly threatening Lam to “watch his soul” if he deliberately deviates from China’s orbit.
The changes in personnel as well as domestic and foreign policies of Lam, in a short time, have significantly affected the power and interests of the loyal followers of the late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, who was very close to China.
According to some comments, China has been considering Lam as having a tendency to lean towards the West, and this is a “danger.” His holding the two positions of General Secretary and State President is something that Beijing cannot accept, and China will prevent at all costs.
On the one hand, Beijing puts pressure on Lam, on the other hand, they leave open a backup plan, promoting General Luong Cuong to General Secretary at the 14th Party National Congress in early 2026, with Luong Cuong’s commitment to “single-mindedly” follow China.
According to observers, Lam’s main “opponents” at present are the military generals who are close to Beijing. Notable are General Luong Cuong – Standing member of the Secretariat, and Senior Lieutenant General Nguyen Trong Nghia – Head of the Central Committee’s Commission on Propaganda and Education. They have been colluding with Beijingto obstruct Lam. The case of Fulbright University Vietnam being accused of “nurturing color revolution” is undeniable evidence.
It can be said that this is a fierce race whose outcome is unpredictable. But with the current situation, Lam is likely to back down, even though he knows that his power will be reduced.
There is even speculation that if Lam insists on holding on to both seats, he will likely face strong opposition from pro-China forces in the Party. At that time, Beijing may be forced to take action to punish. And the measure of pulling strings for pro-China forces in the military to rebel, so that Beijing can have an excuse to intervene militarily, cannot be ruled out./.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
