The recent 11th Plenum of the Communist Party of Vietnam (CPV)’s Central Committee showed that Defense Minister General Phan Van Giang’s power is gradually regaining its strength in politics. Meanwhile, General Secretary To Lam’s bamboo-splitting power is being blocked, making the upcoming battles more interesting. Giang and Lam, two generals, each holds a sword of the regime. What if they become political opponents?
Since the Chengdu Conference, the CPV’s General Secretaries in particular and the Four Pillars in general have all had a common formula, which is to always seek support from Beijing. Almost everyone wants China to take care of them to consolidate their position in the country. Even former top legislator Vuong Dinh Hue, when he was beaten by Lam, tried to go to Beijing for help but was helpless.
Lam’s ascension to the throne left a mark that can easily be mistaken for “anti-China.” He dared to light incense at the Vi Xuyen martyrs’ cemetery, but it seemed to be just an act to please the people, not a tough stance against Xi Jinping. Under Lam’s leadership, Vietnam is gradually becoming more dependent on China. The loan to build a railway, the decision to establish 10 more special economic zones, the purchase of Chinese planes, and most importantly, the signing of 45 secret documents with Xi Jinping.
Previously, the number of documents that late General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong signed at one time with Xi Jinping was not that large. And it is worth mentioning that there were documents under Trong’s leadership that were not as secret as under Lam. For example, the agreement to let China train source cadres of the Communist Party of Vietnam.
It seems that Giang openly leans toward China without having to take cover-up actions like Lam. Recently, Giang invited China to participate in the parade with the Vietnamese army on April 30.
Vietnamese politics is used to be a battle between people outside the armed forces, but now it has changed direction. It is highly likely that in the 2026-2031 term, there will be battles between two generals, one a police general and one an army general. In the near future, Vietnamese politics will be dominated by generals, not a battle between civil officials as before.
Historically, military generals often had tough ideas. However, through what the two leading military generals in politics have shown, their toughness is perhaps only toughness with the people and with each other, while with foreign countries they are still “soft” in the style of bamboo diplomacy. They mainly seek to flatter Beijing to have peace and stability in the country.
Lam is nurturing the ambition to turn Vietnam into an “era of rising up” and he is trying to realize it by causing great turmoil in the Government apparatus. This action causes no small amount of damage to other forces. It can be said that Lam is making enemies with many comrades, especially with the Nghe An group, Lam has caused serious damage.
In the next term, it will be very difficult for the Nghe An group to confront the Hung Yen group. Although this group has completely lost ground compared to Hung Yen, it cannot be harmless to Hung Yen, but on the contrary, it still has the potential to pose a danger because if there are other forces that dare to confront Hung Yen, they connect with Nghe An, then the Hung Yen faction will not be easy to deal with. In politics, there are no eternal enemies, only eternal interests.
When Giang builds a framework in the army that is strong enough to balance Hung Yen, he will receive much more than that. It is very likely that he will receive support from the major forces that are being oppressed by Lam.
It is worth mentioning that Giang wants to show his loyalty to Beijing even more than Lam. That is a great advantage.
Hoang Phuc -Thoibao.de
