Leading in trade with Russia in Southeast Asia, Vietnam may have more opportunities in import and export activities when Western countries impose economic sanctions on Russia.
The escalating tension between Russia and Ukraine with rapid developments in recent days has made global financial markets wobble. The rup’s devaluation by up to 30% against the USD in the trading session on February 25th and interest rates in Russia doubled to 20% on February 28th will create a financial crisis, investment in this country.
Countries with investment and trade relations with Russia and Ukraine will also be more or less affected by the financial crisis in Russia and the Russia-Ukraine conflict – which is not expected to end overnight.
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine will aggravate problems related to the global crisis in energy prices and supply chain disruptions. This war will push energy and food prices into an unending upward spiral, sparking inflation fears and threatening growth and investment in many economies around the world.
According to experts, a protracted Russia-Ukraine war can have an impact at the macro level and in the worst case, oil prices may rise to $120-$140/barrel.
On trade, Russia’s attack on Ukraine prompted the US and the West to announce on February 27 that they had agreed to impose strong financial sanctions against Russia. This is expected to cause Russia to reduce the output of export items and force it to change strategic partners.
Some views say that when Western countries apply sanctions on Russia, it will push the country closer to China, in terms of economic relations. The two countries recently negotiated a 30-year gas supply contract through a new pipeline. Russia is likely to redirect its fuel and commodity exports to China and other Asian countries.
Analysts point out that in recent years, Asia has played an increasingly important role in Russia’s exports, and that more than 40% of Russian exports are directed to Asian countries, especially China, Kazakhstan, Korea, and Japan.
In addition to Japan and South Korea, China and India are also major importers of Russian oil and gas.
On the one hand, Russia can reduce trade with Western countries, and at the same time, it may increase trade with Asian countries.
As for Vietnam, we currently hold the No. 1 position in terms of trade turnover with the Russian Federation among Southeast Asian countries and the 6th trading partner of the Russian Federation in the Asia-Pacific region, especially with agricultural and aquatic products.
Statistics of Vietnam’s General Department of Customs show that the total two-way trade turnover between Vietnam-Russia and Ukraine in 2021 is nearly $39 billion (with Russia is nearly $35 billion, Ukraine is about $4 billion), accounting for nearly 6% of Vietnam’s total import-export turnover in 2021. In which, Vietnam’s exports to Russia and Ukraine reached about $23 billion, accounting for 7% of export turnover; imports hit $15.5 billion, accounting for about 5% of the total import turnover.
Notably, the import-export turnover of Vietnam and Russia has grown well in the past few years with a double-digit growth rate. In 2021, Vietnam’s trade surplus to Russia hit more than $7 billion, higher than the total trade surplus of 4$ billion.
The main export items of Vietnam to Russia include Seafood, vegetables, cashew nuts, coffee, tea, pepper, rice, confectionery, and cereal products; Products from plastic, rubber, products from rubber, bags, wallets, suitcases, cosmetics, umbrellas; Products from rattan, bamboo, sedge, and carpet; Wood, wood products; Textiles; Footwear of all kinds; Ceramic and porcelain products; Steels; Computers, electronic products and phone components of all kinds; Other machinery, equipment, tools, and spare parts; Sports equipment.
Vietnam’s main imports from Russia include Seafood, wheat; Minerals and minerals, coal, petroleum products; chemicals, chemical products; Medicine; Fertilizers of all kinds; Plastic materials; Rubber; Wood and wood products; Paper of all kinds; Iron and Steel; metal; Machinery, equipment, spare parts; war cars; car spare parts.
Dr. Vu Thanh Liem, former Deputy Director of the General Statistics Office, said that Russia has gradually replaced its strategic partner, pivoting to China and Asian countries in recent years, including Vietnam.
The Russia-Ukraine war that causes Western countries to impose sanctions and impose bans on investment and trade activities in Russia will further push Russia away from this region and be forced to reposition strategic partners. outside the US and the West.
In addition, the fact that Russia’s supply chains of goods with the United States and the West are disrupted and interrupted (mainly energy and food) due to sanctions and embargoes will also create opportunities for other suppliers.
“Vietnam and Asian countries can take advantage of this opportunity in trade to increase import and export activities with not only Russia but also other countries in the world with which Vietnam has trade relations and is subject to the burden of foreign trade and responsibility. The impact of trade disruption due to the Russia-Ukraine war, especially a number of essential commodities such as agriculture, forestry, and fishery – are also strengths of Vietnam, so it should be focused to catch this opportunity,” said Mr. Liem emphasized.
Translated by thoibao.de from the original source: https://nhadautu.vn/co-hoi-nao-cho-xuat-nhap-khau-viet-nam-nhin-tu-xung-dot-nga–ukraine-d63868.html
