On August 18-20, General Secretary cum State President To Lam visited China for 3 days, right after taking office as party chief. This shows that Lam still needs Beijing, and is even ready to submit, in exchange for political advantages for himself and his faction.
Recently, American and Vietnamese officials said that Defense Minister Phan Van Giang will go to Washington on September 7-9 to strengthen defense cooperation between the two countries.
In the context of limited arms supply from Russia, due to the war in Ukraine, especially after the performance on the battlefield, it has been shown that Russian weapons are far behind Western weapons. Thanks to modern Western weapons, Ukraine has not only made Putin bogged down, but also had enough strength to counterattack Russia. It can be said that without Western weapons, Ukraine could not have achieved victories on the battlefield.
Choosing American weapons for the Vietnamese army is the right direction, that is indisputable. However, for a long time, the Communist Party has been afraid of Beijing, so it has not dared to buy American weapons openly like Taiwan. This time, General Giang will go to the US, expressing his dream of getting closer to American weapons. However, does he dare to buy or not, or will it just stop at the level of limited diplomatic relations?
It is very difficult for Minister Giang to raise the issue of buying weapons from the US, because in the Party there are many people holding high positions but willingly bowing to Beijing. However, when going to the US, Giang also shows a message to other factions, especially Lam.
Lam went to China, Giang will go to the US, clearly the two policies are not compatible. Because going to China is to flatter Beijing, but going to the US makes Beijing unhappy.
High-ranking Vietnamese officials often make trips to the US, still shake hands with the head of the US Department of Defense, but in the end, they only stop at the diplomatic level, not daring to go into the important issue of publicly purchasing US weapons.
Remember, on September 17, 2023, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh visited the US. After that, the US press reported that Chinh wanted to buy F16 fighter jets from the US. However, the Vietnamese side did not confirm this information, and so far, there has been no action from Vietnam to go further in purchasing US weapons.
This time, it is very unlikely that Giang will do something “earth-shattering”, because Vietnamese Communist officials still want to buy US weapons, but are afraid of China. That fear has been passed down from many generations of leaders, becoming an invisible string, tying Vietnam to China’s orbit.
In the current Vietnamese political arena, To Lam’s position is too big. The police faction has now taken the position of General Secretary, which means it also holds the position of Secretary of the Central Military Commission. The military faction has enough power to stop the police faction, but cannot do so, because there is no unity in the military. There is still no harmony between General Luong Cuong and Giang.
Now, Lam is “sitting on top” of both Generals Cuong and Giang. As General Secretary and Secretary of the Central Military Commission, Lam wants to limit the power of the military faction, and then remove them from the political stage, if possible. The Hung Yen people in the military are still present, with 2 members of the Party Central Committee. If Giang is removed, Lam can completely Hung Yenize the military.
To protect the interests and limit To Lam’s power, the only way left is for the factions in the army to “put aside their “internal conflicts” to fight against the “common enemy.” That is the best move the army can make.
Will they dare to do it, and have the capacity to do it? Let’s wait and see!
Tran Chuong – Thoibao.de
