Vietnam enters a new phase – in theory – when the 13th National Congress of the ruling Communist Party of Vietnam completed the election of its leadership on February 1.
However, with the actual leader of the party still being Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong, observers have commented that the party is having a crisis in its leadership arrangement.
As the news has been reported, the first meeting (plenum) of the Central Committee in the 13th tenure on January 31 elected Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong to continue his position as General Secretary. This is the third consecutive term of Mr. Trong in this powerful position.
Vietnam’s state-controlled media reported that Mr. Trong, 77 years old, is one of the ten special cases elected to the Central Committee, specifically over the age limit to participate in the 200-member body as specified in the party rules.
“Now I am not very well, my age is also old, I also resign, but the Congress still has asked me to work so as a member I must obey, so I will do my best“, General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong said at a press conference on Feb 1, according to local press reports.
From Singapore, researcher Le Hong Hiep of the Institute for Southeast Asian Studies ISEAS-Yusof Ishak commented to VOA about this event:
“In a sense, it can be seen that there is a crisis of a certain degree in finding the right leaders to replace those who are beyond age or term limits. General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong’s stay for an additional term can be seen as a situational solution to a possible crisis.”
Dr. Le Hong Hiep noted that this solution would first reach consensus among the high-ranking party leaders, reflected in the fact that the new Central Committee almost completely agreed with Mr. Nguyen Phú Trọng remaining as general secretary for another term.
However, the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute researcher noted the fact that this party congress accepted many special cases, notably Mr. Trong, and as such, some internal party rules on broken personnel.
“If this is not corrected, the rules and regulations are not reinstated, which can set up a very bad precedent, creating unpredictable uncertainties in future HR issues,” said Hiep.
Professor Mac Van Trang, who often speaks to social criticism, shares his opinion with VOA from Ho Chi Minh City:
“Mr. Trong is an elderly person, has had a stroke, has deteriorated health, even has to be led by someone, yet he continues. That proves there is a leadership crisis in the elite of the communist party. Mr. Trong violates the party’s charter. Now he was serving his third term, which created bad public opinion. Young people should have replaced him. This proves that there is a deadlock, lack of trust in the next class.”
Freelance journalist Song Chi, a former film director who left Vietnam for political asylum in 2009 and now lives in the UK, expressed his opinion on her personal Facebook page that: “The whole country [Vietnam] is led again by a 77-year-old old man, twice had a stroke, hardened mind, just repeating Marxism-Leninism, Ho Chi Minh’s thought, Socialism, always putting the party’s survival first.”
In the eyes of the journalist, Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong is “an image of a communist from the 40s and 50s of the 20th century, being a conservative man, with only a bunch of old Marxist theories, rather than being a leader of today’s times, without sharp thinking and foresight to lead the country.”
Ms. Song Chi envisioned a negative prospect for Vietnam with a comment that: “When you look like that, you can see the future, the country’s destiny for at least the next 5 years in his leadership will not change but still stumbling along the zic zac path, still continuing to patch this place and cover there.”
Unlike Ms. Song Chi, Dr. Mac Van Trang places his hope on reform-minded figures who are waiting for their time at the party. He said:
“In the Politburo, in the Central Committee, there are also many patriots, capable, they can have innovative ideas, do not accept the current mechanism and institutions, so they are not trusted. Later, in the transition, new factors will appear, and that person will make things, change institutions and create new development for the country.”
According to Dr. Le Hong Hiep, even when the Communist Party of Vietnam elected Nguyen Phu Trong as its leader for another term, they have already started looking for a successor to him, but the powerful factions in the party have not reached a consensus in finding a person to replace him. Mr. Hiep said:
“Mainly this is a conflict between groups or specific characters regarding the power relationships between these characters. Characters with more power, for example, don’t want to give up their positions. Meanwhile, the people who have the potential to step up to a new position are limited in the level of influence and support in the central party. So, there are bargains, there are negotiations to reach a settlement, the more supporters, the more people accept the better.”
In his own analysis, Dr. Hiep forecasts that there is a high possibility that General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong can transfer power after a few years, rather than completing his term, due to his serious health problems.
However, if the factions fail to reach a consensus on a replacement for Trong, the impasse will persist, leading to Trong staying longer than the party originally planned, according to Dr. Hiep.
Thoibao.de (Translated)
