“The political life of Vietnamese Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh is precarious with the ups and downs of the economy and the bad internal turmoil.”
An analysis by the financial newspaper Bloomberg on August 28, referring to signs of infighting in the top political elite of Vietnam’s leadership, said as above.
According to Bloomberg, disagreements about views within the current Vietnamese leadership, among factions within the Party, show no sign of abating. Especially the relationship between Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh, the head of the executive branch, and the head of the Party is General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong.
Bloomberg believes that the success or failure of Vietnam’s economy also affects the political life of Mr. Pham Minh Chinh, given his precarious situation.
Chinh has ordered the Central Bank to loosen credit allocation, as well as lower the basic interest rate up to 5 times since the beginning of this year, in an effort to boost the economy to 9% growth in 6 remaining months of this year.
This excessive pressure from PM Chinh has caused Dao Minh Tu, Deputy Governor of the State Bank, to have a public reaction. While, in Vietnam, the Deputy Governor is equivalent to the rank of Deputy Minister, that is, subordinate to the Prime Minister.
Analysts pointed out that it is possible that General Secretary Trong, through the former Governor of the State Bank, now Chief of the Party Central Committee Le Minh Hung, tried to put more pressure on the PM.
In fact, the disagreement between the Government faction and the Party faction is not a new one, but a remarkable systemic issue, appearing since the first term of General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong, at the 11th National Congress of the Communist Party of Vietnam in 2011. At that time, the conflict between then Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung, who held the position of Prime Minister in 2006-2016, and General Secretary Trong was very deep. It is unclear if this contradiction comes from Dung’s statement, showing his disdain for Mr. Trong, saying: “Mr. Trong is older than me, but his membership of the Central Committee and the Politburo is far behind mine.” This is not not wrong, because Dung was an alternate member of the Party Central Committee from 1986, a member of the Politburo from the 1996. Meanwhile, Mr. Trong was additionally elected to the Central Committee in 1994, and was additionally elected to the Politburo in 1997.
But that is news in the corridor, and that General Secretary Trong always has a cynical attitude, not only with the Government of Dung, but also with the Government of Nguyen Xuan Phuc, or now the Government of Mr. Pham Minh Chinh. According to news from the “red house”, Mr. Trong often said to his inner circle that, “The government holds the budget, a lot of money, the Party does not manage it tightly, they will riot and despise the leadership of the Party.” It sounds reasonable, and perhaps that is the reason for Mr. Trong to always “play” with the Government.
But Mr. Pham Minh Chinh, former head of the Party Central Committee’s Organization Department, took a step to the Prime Minister’s seat, certainly with the consent of General Secretary Trong. Moreover, Mr. Chinh is also the Deputy Head of the Human Resources Subcommittee of the 13th National Party Congress, the right-hand man in the personnel work of the General Secretary, yet until now, PM Chinh is also in a state of insecurity. Because Trong made no secret of his goal of knocking the Prime Minister out of his position.
According to Bloomberg, “His two Deputy Prime Ministers [Chinh] have been kicked out (Pham Binh Minh, Vu Duc Dam) since the end of last year. At the beginning of this year, President Nguyen Xuan Phuc also “resigned” because he [Phuc] was one of the people who was looking at the position of General Secretary, and Mr. Nguyen Phu Trong is now 79 years old sick, will have to retire.“ That shows that any comrade in the Party, whenever he tries to look at the seat of the General Secretary, will have to leave. They were Dinh The Huynh, Tran Dai Quang, Tran Quoc Vuong, and recently Nguyen Xuan Phuc, as well as the coming, very likely Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh.
According to analyst Le Hong Hiep at the ISEAS Research Institute in Singapore – a former official of Vietnam’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs – said: “They have to reach consensus when choosing a successor, so perhaps, they have to exclude anyone who opposes Trong’s chosen (successor).”
Hiep added that some high-ranking party members [probably Vuong Dinh Hue], wants Chinh to be ousted, “because if he’s still sitting there, he might be a hindrance to him [Hue].”
The things just listed are also the source of Trong’s efforts to promote Party and Government agencies, to aggressively pursue Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Nhan, Chairman of the Board of Directors and General Director of the Advanced International Corporation (AIC), since mid-2022.
It is known that before the 7th Plenum of the 13th Central Committee (May 2023), when meeting with Hanoi voters, referring to long-standing corruption cases and many suspects fleeing, Party General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong emphasized, “escaping can’t be escaped.”
However, at the 7th Plenum of the Central Committee of the 13th term, the situation changed, and so far, Trong is resentful because his previous bold statement did not come true, because PM Chinh was more stubborn. It must also be added that Ms. Nhan AIC is said to be Chinh’s lover, even, the two have a daughter together, residing in the UK.
In a detailed Bloomberg article, Vo Van Thuong, a 52-year-old Politburo member, the youngest member of the Politburo, who replaced Mr. Phuc, will most likely be at the top of the list to replace Nguyen Phu Trong at the 14th Congress in early 2026. While, knowledgeable people in the “red house” affirmed, Trong wants Vuong Dinh Hue, the boss of Nghe An faction, to succeed him. And Vo Van Thuong is “a guy without a father, without a mother“, Thuong is only used as a toy, but how to sit on a party chief position. Meanwhile, it is reported that former Communist officials of the South have just gathered in An Giang and decided to make Vo Van Thuong, who has three bloodlines North – Central – South, as a candidate for the post of General Secretary at the 14th Congress.
So, there is a funny story about “one loss, one remains” between Hue and Thuong, let’s wait and see.
Tra My – Thoibao.de
