In August, Bui Van Cuong – General Secretary of Vietnam’s highest legislative body National Assembly, said that according to the Resolution of the party’s Central Committee, the 15th National Assembly will re-elect the position of State President, at the 8th session, in October 2024. Some reliable sources assessed that it is highly likely that Cuong – Standing member of the Secretariat will become the new State President.
Normally, the position of Standing member of the Secretariat does not have enough power to attract Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s attention. Xi is only interested in the position of General Secretary, and those who are capable of climbing to this position, because this is the top position of the Communist Party of Vietnam. Xi only needs to hold the General Secretary’s head, to be able to control all the remaining components. Previously, Xi was quite secure with a loyal “subordinate” Nguyen Phu Trong.
Remember, in 2011, when Trong was already General Secretary, and knew for sure that Xi would replace Hu Jintao. During the visit of Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping, at that time, Trong had a forest of 6-star flags to welcome the “future Chinese emperor.”
Indeed, after taking the supreme power in China, Xi used Trong effectively. Trong helped Xi, making the entire Communist Party of Vietnam obey Xi’s will. In return, Xi helped Trong sit on the throne for life, and saved his life in the “stroke in Kien Giang” incident, as well as extending his life by 5 years.
When he had just become General Secretary, To Lam also performed his duty to Beijing first, then to the US. However, it seems that Xi was still not satisfied with Lam, because he had betrayed Trong. This is a great opportunity for others in the Communist Party of Vietnam to gain Xi’s support and rise to become a new force.
On October 11, General Cuong – Standing member of the Secretariat, who is believed to be a possible State President, was invited to Beijing by Xi Jinping. Of course, this is an opportunity to become a “good servant” so Cuong could not miss it. During his visit, he was favored by the “Chinese emperor” and allowed to meet with him. According to Vietnam’s state-controlled media, Cuong’s trip was to celebrate the 75th anniversary of China’s National Day.
Currently, the military is divided into two large factions. The strongest is Phan Van Giang’s faction. General Giang has a firm grip on the General Staff and the General Department of Military Intelligence.
Cuong controls the General Department of Politics. This is the agency that manipulated public opinion, attacking Fulbright University – a symbol of Vietnam-US educational cooperation. The leader of this campaign is General Nguyen Trong Nghia – Head of the Central Committee’s Commission for Propaganda and Education.
Nghia and Cuong both come from the General Political Department of the Army. This is considered the place with the heaviest Beijing-slave ideology today. In 2021, Trong pulled General Nghia from the General Political Department to take the position of dead of the propaganda machine in order to control the state press in a pro-China line. In May 2024, Trong pulled Cuong back to the Secretariat, to guard this department, against Lam’s attacks.
Thanks to leaning towards Beijing, Trong was able to overthrow Prime Minister Nguyen Tan Dung – the strongest force in Vietnamese politics at that time. Now, it seems that Cuong wants to do the same thing, before becoming State President.
It is unlikely that Lam will dare to leave Beijing’s orbit. However, recent moves show that he has made Xi uneasy, especially his trip to the US last September.
In addition, Defense Minister Giang also had a very noisy trip to the US. This is also something that Xi does not like.
Both Giang and Lam have taken diplomatic “tightrope” actions, not necessarily leaning towards the US. However, that could make Xi uneasy, and it is very possible that Xi will build another, more obedient force?
Let’s wait and see!
Tran Chuong – Thoibao.de
